Miscellaneous developments from the past week: LvT, For the Currumbin by-election see also Tally Room guide, Poll Bludger guide, ABC guide The same day will see the massive Brisbane City Council elections. Newspoll figures are from The Poll Bludger. The Flashman series are one of my favourite ever historical novels / series. Welcome to the Poll Bludger’s live coverage of the Groom by-election. Sheep provided the answer. (Photo: Matthew Liddy/ABC Online.) Reddit gives you the best of the internet in one place. This week's poll came in with primaries of Coalition 42 (-1) Labor 36 (-) Greens 10 (-1) One Nation 3 (+1) Others 9 (+1). Thanks for this. Since 30 June 2019 RoR has dropped because of the March 2020 Stock Market Crash. Ben Raue. Also, they say that they pay all tax due, in Australia. * I treat Newspoll up to mid-2015 and Newspoll after that as different pollsters as the series were administered by entirely different companies. I don’t need it but I won’t be giving it back. The history was meticulously researched, and they were all a fkn great read!”, “Damn you Fwashman! The electorate of Groom covers the city of Toowoomba in southern Queensland, as well as nearby rural areas to the west of the city. I don’t know about Turnbully’s tax arrangements but I’d agree with PJK on tax: – basically flater lower rates of tax without deductions (to prevent the rich rorting loopholes) is the way to go. In short, most seat margins change by relatively small amounts, while Burt is considered to be a marginal Liberal seat. He was the 12th Deputy Premier of South Australia from 2011 to 2018 and 48th Attorney-General of South Australia from 2010 to 2018 for the South Australian Branch of the Australian Labor Party in the Weatherill cabinet. Investment returns aren’t guaranteed. Based on the description on Poll Bludger I am not satisfied that it was intended as an overall 2PP rather than an estimate of preference flow from minor party voters. • An international poll by the Pew Research Centre finds 94% of Australians believe their country has handled the pandemic well and 6% badly, whereas 85% think the United States has handled it badly and 14% well, while the respective numbers for China are 25% and 73%. Newspoll figures are from The Poll Bludger. Alternatively, find out what’s trending across all of Reddit on r/popular. The seat thereafter went back and forth between the Liberal Party and the National/Country Party, first with Fadden's move to the new seat of McPherson in 1949. Required fields are marked *. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Thursday from a sample of 1147. Click. Would any other Bludger who gets a 15%+ return on their Super Fund please speak up? I have a superannuation pension with a fixed monthly payment, which comprises income plus a partial return of capital if the earnings aren’t enough. Antony Green has tweeted "The narrowing was caused by the ECQ stopping the feed of preferences which caused estimates to kick in." This poll was conducted November 25-28 from a sample of 1,511 people. Around 80% of the voters in Groom live in Toowoomba, 130 kilometres to the west of Brisbane. The next three-cornered contest came with Swartz's retirement in 1972, when Tom McVeigh gained the seat for the Country Party. Not bad. Groom was first won in 1984 by the National Party’s Tom McVeigh. The LNP settles on a candidate for the Groom by-election, as what doesn’t kill Gladys Berejiklian and Daniel Andrews only makes them stronger. Please direct me to any Fund in Australian Super that gives an RoR in anytime period of 15+% in the last 2.5 yrs. Geography North-western parts of South Australia. William “The Poll Bludger” Bowe’s expert electorate analysis walks Crikey readers though every electorate in Australia. As a result of using state breakdowns, its casualty list is quite different. ← In hunting for Chinese spies we hang on for dear life to Anglo-Saxon allies. The elder McVeigh was a National, but the seat was won by the Liberal Party at the 1988 by-election. I agree with that, so long as the Australian people no longer subsidise Private Education and Health beyond a flat rate payable to every school child and for every citizen’s health needs, with top ups only for Public Schools, The photos Donald Trump never wanted us to see. Your email address will not be published. Saturday’s good reading and listening for the weekend - Pearls and IrritationsPearls and Irritations. Excellent author of Historical late Republic Roman History. This poll was conducted November 25-28 from a sample of 1,511 people. Again direct me onto the Aust Super website to where you can obtain a 15%+ RoR on a Fixed Stream Account. John Robert Rau SC (born 20 March 1959) is an Australian barrister and politician. Get a constantly updating feed of breaking news, fun stories, pics, memes, and videos just for you. This week’s Newspoll will presumably be the final one for 2020. – Conversation between Col. Flashman and Lord Cardigan outside Horse Guards during the Royal Commission into the Charge of the Light Brigade (as parsed from memory my me): Flashman and the Great Game. Created at federation and fairly constant in its boundaries ever since, Maranoa covers a vast expanse of south-western Queensland accounting for about 40% of the state’s surface area. "Groom by-election minus two days" — The Poll Bludger, November 26, 2020 " 2020 Groom by-election - 28 November " — Sustainable Australia , November 26, 2020 (date of access) Kevin Bonham. The Poll Bludger version, which has similar totals and much swishier presentation, includes state breakdowns but not seatpolls. Since Macfarlane’s seat of Groom is one of the safe ones, its loss to the Liberals would be felt particularly keenly. First up, note the new-ish posts below on a YouGov poll for South Australia and Adrian Beaumont’s latest on the US race. And, of course, the settlement of Australia was largely driven by the need for more pasture …to raise sheep. Sunday, September 20, 2020 at 8:36 pm The primary votes are Labor 37%, Coalition 38.5% and Greens 12.5%. Maybe we should ask Angus Taylor? But I don’t twist and turn”. Your email address will not be published. Swing 3.29%, compared to historic average 6% for government seat by-election vacancies. A piece commenced with the following lines: "Kevin Rudd has refused to reveal whether under-pressure Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese can win Queensland despite the former Prime Minister joining him for day one of a whirlwind ‘jobs tour’ across the state. An agreement between the coalition parties reserved Darling Downs for the Liberals, and it was next held for the party by Reginald Swartz. In short, most seat margins change by relatively small amounts, while Burt is considered to be a marginal Liberal seat. Ms Groom, 57, says she will also be voting no in the referendum to determine extended shopping hours. For parties not included in Antony's tallies, I use the sampled distributions published by Poll Bludger. ___________________________ Macfarlane served in cabinet through the last three terms of the Howard goverment, and again with the election of the Abbott government in 2013. Poll Bludger: could Turnbull-haters revive the irrelevant Nats? Dale Spehr Baker (30 January 1939 – 27 March 2012) was an Australian politician, serving as South Australian Opposition Leader and Leader of the South Australian Division of the Liberal Party of Australia from 1990 to 1992. He sees himself as a “Svengali” type character, delivering his acidic cross-examinations with rapier-like wit, icy calm, and devastating insight. This week's poll came in with primaries of Coalition 42 (-1) Labor 36 (-) Greens 10 (-1) One Nation 3 (+1) Others 9 (+1). I assumed that you were at the head of your command when we were amongst the battery, but I was to preoccupied to notice. Please direct corrections or comments to pollbludger-AT-crikey.com.au (Visited 1 times, 1 visits today) His portrayal of Cicero is outstanding, however as an alternative POV Robert Harris’s Cicero trilogy is just as good. I’ve noticed in your response you changed your Super from a “Balanced Fund” to a ” Fixed Stream Account”. C@tmomma says: The previous member, Ian Macfarlane, attempted to defect from the Liberals to the Nationals in 2015, but the move was thwarted by the Liberal National Party administration in 2015. With Labor having polled 18.7% of the primary vote in the seat at the 2019 election, it seems a fairly safe bet that they will be sitting this one out. …I’d agree with PJK on tax: – basically flater lower rates of tax without deductions (to prevent the rich rorting loopholes) is the way to go. Horrible right-winger that he was, George MacDonald Fraser had a knack for decent historical novels too. This poll was conducted November 25-28 from a sample of 1,511 people. The other day, researching units for my history class, I mused that there needs to be a definitive book on the role of sheep in history. Sunday, September 20, 2020 at 8:41 pm Darling Craig Farquharson: What prompted me to run as a candidate in Groom is, because as a small business owner, I could not get my elected MP to talk to me or even to call me back. But how easy would it have been for them to ask that question? The Flashman series are one of my favourite ever historical novels / series. This poll was conducted November 25-28 from a sample of 1,511 people. Voting intention trend measures based on polling published since the 2019 federal election. If I live long enough, the capital will run out and I go on the pension. I have a superannuation pension with a fixed monthly payment, which comprises income plus a partial return of capital if the earnings aren’t enough. McVeigh Most superannuants would be eating into their capital to make up their regular income. It is one Robert Harris series I have not read. Reddit has thousands of vibrant communities with people that share your interests. Steve777 says: You should talk to BB, he can get you a 15% p.a return apparently. Poll Bludger: religious right comes up trumps in Lib preselection battles The Abetzes -- Eric and Peter -- are throwing their weight around. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics. Groom is located in the state of Queensland, ... "Groom by-election minus two days" — The Poll Bludger, November 26, 2020; Kevin Bonham. (1523953 votes to 1344371). Numbers with black borders are from pre-poll voting centres. I … His father, Tom McVeigh, held the seat for the National/Country Party from 1972 to 1988 (it was known until 1984 as Darling Downs), but it passed to the Liberal control at the by-election following his retirement. Newspoll figures are from The Poll Bludger. ... Groom by-election - 28 November 2020 Western Australia - 13 March 2021 NSW councils - 4 September 2021. Also, thanks Vote1Julia for reminding us how we used to exchange ideas on what to read on this blog. The post UK Conservative leadership: Johnson firms as next PM appeared first on The Poll Bludger. All of this for zero effort on my part and very little worry (Note: not zero worry). It's hardly the worst seat for the party, which polled 8% there in 2019, but they have said they are focusing on … This follows yesterday’s announcement by Liberal-aligned LNP member John McVeigh, the member since 2016 and previously state member for Toowoomba South from 2012,. that he will retire due to his wife’s illness. The nobles had previously relied on cheap labour for the source of their wealth, and now had to look for a way to make money without it. Morphett is a single-member electoral district for the South Australian House of Assembly.The electorate is located approximately 10 kilometres (6.2 mi) slightly south of west of the Adelaide city centre, bounded by the Holdfast Bay coastline to the west and Morphett Road to the east. Meanwhile, William Bowe at Poll Bludger has estimated the new seat margins. Groom by-election coming up. Groom was first won in 1984 by the National Party’s Tom McVeigh. By. To the extent that the seat has been interesting it has been as a battleground between the Liberals and the Nationals, most recently when McVeigh’s predecessor, Ian Macfarlane, had his bid to defect from the former to the latter blocked by the Liberal National Party administration in 2015. This not only led to the enclosure system, which disrupted the old feudal system, but to the rise of industry – first through the invention of machines to spin and weave wool and then to the use of steam. Why New Zealand is ideally placed to broker a truce between China … The results at the 2018 election were Labor 42.9%, Coalition 35.2% and Greens 10.7%, with Labor winning the two-party vote 57.3-42.7. Okay let’s look at Aust Super Choice Income aka Fixed Stream Account, quote,”Strong long-term returns – 10.90% pa average annual 10 year rate of return for the Balanced option”+ Groom Giles – SA 2014 ALP 11.9% Incumbent MP Lyn Breuer, since 1997. Groom was created as part of the expansion of the House of Representatives at the 1984 election. I have a modest share portfolio with some shares still paying dividends, so when I eventually do my tax return the Government will send me free money. Not really c@t, its pretty clear BB has been caught out bullshitting again. “ Horrible right-winger that he was, George MacDonald Fraser had a knack for decent historical novels too. Van Gend reportedly led in the first round of the preselection vote, but Hamilton emerged a narrow winner as support consolidated behind him with the exclusion of other candidates. Groom was first held in the 1980s by Tom McVeigh, father of the recently retired MP. The Herald-Sun reported on Monday on a “privately conducted” Victorian state poll by YouGov that showed Labor maintaining a commanding 55-45 lead on two-party preferred, from … A poll finds nearly three-quarters of Conservative Party members support Boris Johnson to become Britain's new Prime Minister, as Labour falls to fourth place on voting intention. What was ~$175,000 in April (after the 2020 COVID crash) is now $196,000 in August. Poll Bludger: could Turnbull-haters revive the irrelevant Nats? Poll … Groom: Primary vote. I have a file on Evernote entitled “Books to read”, and half of them are recommendations from the PB. The Nationals ran against Macfarlane in 1998 and 2001, but polled poorly both times. Entries feature details on candidates, demography, swing analysis and more. Updates will appear below the dotted line, scrolling to the top. "Groom: Australia's Most Boring By-Election? However, he was relegated to back bench in the name of renewal when Malcolm Turnbull deposed Abbott in 2015, despite having supported Turnbull in his leadership challenge. +”Returns as at 30 June 2019. This is One Nation’s worst result in a federal Newspoll since before the 2019 … I originally posted a summary prediction on Poll-bludger but that got washed away with so many comments, so I’ll be putting a prediction of every seat here, although I’ll try not to spam too much. Brisbane Council is dominated by the LNP but any sizeable swing in any direction will be seen as a portent for the state election. I watched and thought it powerful at exposing linkages and influence. Passionate about something niche? The display featured above is a small sample of what will be available tonight on this site’s results facility. Learn more. Projections. View all posts by William Bowe, Reviews of the ABC’s “Murdoch dynasty” please. I agree with that, so long as the Australian people no longer subsidise Private Education and Health beyond a flat rate payable to every school child and for every citizen’s health needs, with top ups only for Public School children and Public Health. McVeigh came to the seat in 2016, having previously been the state member for Toowoomba South since 2012. _______________________ This poll was conducted November 25-28 from a sample of 1,511 people. Hamilton was one of eight nominees for preselection, his strongest rivals being Rebecca Vonhoff, a Toowoomba councillor, Bryce Camm, president of Australian Lot Feeders, and David van Gend, a doctor and firebrand social conservative. Guest post by Adrian Beaumont. Newspoll figures are from The Poll Bludger [2]. Upon reading that article you will note that the Turnbulls say they didn’t know the funds they invested in were domiciled in the Caymans. -. Unusually for such a clearly unwinnable seat, Labor is fielding a candidate in the shape of Chris Meibusch, a community lawyer and unsuccessful candidate for the Toowoomba mayoralty in March. * I treat Newspoll up to mid-2015 and Newspoll after that as different pollsters as the series were administered by entirely different companies. Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment. Ipsos has made its first entry into the Australian polling game since the 2019 election (at which it was probably the best performer of the lot, at least to the extent that it was the only one to accurately read the Labor primary vote), courtesy of New South Wales and Victorian state polls … The city is located at the eastern end of an electorate that extends to Jondaryan and Pittsworth in the west, Goombungee in the north, and sparsely populared rural areas further afield. I’m happy to be PROVEN wrong. This poll was conducted November 25-28 from a sample of 1,511 people. This poll was conducted November 25-28 from a sample of 1,511 people. zoomstersays: Two-thirds of respondents said they were satisfied with Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s performance (up two points) and 30% were dissatisfied (down two), for a net approval of +36. A Liberal National Party preselection ballot on October 25 was won by Garth Hamilton, a mining engineer. The seat has effectively existed since federation, although its name was changed from Darling Downs in 1984. LvT swings in, has a look at what you and I have had to say, then sidles up to us with a question or comment meant to land us in a cleft stick. Good day to you”. For parties not included in Antony's tallies, I use the sampled distributions published by Poll Bludger. Apparently my quoting and linking to Aust Super’s website is a faux investigation. McVeigh carried on as member for Groom after 1984 and retired in February 1988, leading to another three-cornered contest at the ensuing by-election. Registration confirmation will be emailed to you. RE My “faux” investigation into BB’s 15+% return on his Australian Super Balanced Fund. Past performance isn’t a reliable indicator of future returns”. Groom is the first federal by-election not contested by the Greens since Warringah, 1994, and breaks a streak of 30 successive by-elections that the party has contested. Yup. The seat has always been held by Coalition MPs. Ian Macfarlane was the first to go, but will he be the last? It gives the Coalition a 51-49% two-party-preferred lead, unchanged from three weeks ago. Hartley is a single-member electoral district for the South Australian House of Assembly. The latter had support from religious conservatives and party figures including Eric Abetz, Matt Canavan and Howard-era Deputy Prime Minister John Anderson, although the prospect of his candidacy excited some alarm among hardheads, notwithstanding that Hamilton too is associated with the party's right.