5pm. Poll closing times are from The Green Papers. This is mainly based on interviews I have seen of undecideds (admittedly a v small sample) who seem to be desperately seeking an excuse to vote for Trump. Since last week, Biden has taken the lead in Ohio and Iowa, and is tied in Georgia. The slight tightening nationally and in Pennsylvania is more than offset by time running out for Trump. Change Research conducted a poll of 3,739 likely voters June 26-28, 2020 across 6 competitive battleground states: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Trump 149 I don’t doubt you’re right. 2pm. I would add tho that we havent had any post debate top tier polls come in yet. Should impact on voting in these areas next few weeks, Also just this week both the Disney theme parks located in California and also Florida laid off almost 30,000 workers. Polls close in California, Oregon and Washington. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden-has-made-some-modest-gains-after-the-debate/, Trump now has a 17% chance of winning. Joe Biden is an incredibly incompetent candidate who shouldn’t be the nominee. This Newspoll was conducted January 29 to February 1 from a sample of 1,510. Tasmanian poll: Liberals over 50%. A poll aggregator is an entity that tracks and aggregates, often but not exclusively by averaging, individual polls conducted by different organizations in order to gauge public sentiment on key civic issues such as the approval rating of a major political figure (e.g., president, prime minister, monarch, governor, lawmaker, etc. There are two Bludgers used in every match, which are bewitched to fly around and try to knock the players off of their broomsticks. In FiveThirtyEight’s aggregates, Biden also leads by 2.1% in North Carolina, 1.8% in Iowa and 1.5% in Georgia. Unchanged on last week’s projection. The final polls close in Alaska’s western time zone. For Trump there has never been a difference between winning legitimately and winning. What strikes me is how blind people are to their own hypocrisy. The most important early state is Florida: if Biden wins, he’s almost assured of victory, but a Trump win means we could be waiting for mail votes from Pennsylvania and Michigan, possibly for days. The nationwide Suffolk University/USA TODAY survey was conducted through live interviews of Trump voters from 2020 national and state polls via cell phone and land line users. I tend to think mostly not and that the behavior of the late-deciders was instead mainly attributable to an unfavorable news environment for Clinton in the shadow of the James B. Comey letter to Congress and the Wikileaks dumps. Updated 1858 GMT (0258 HKT) June 29, 2020 Utting Research: 16% swing to Labor in WA marginals, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/27/upshot/undecided-voters-2018-midterms.html, https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/allocating-undecideds/, https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/undecideds/, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/, https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden-has-made-some-modest-gains-after-the-debate/, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/, Western Australian election minus one week, YouGov: 51-49 to Liberal in South Australia, Essential Research: COVID-19, leader attributes and more, The news from Hughes (and Boothby and Dickson). In Florida, early votes will be released soon after polls close and election day votes are counted relatively quickly. The polling has not been published for scrutiny. what is wrong with people who say they can’t decide but select the ‘likely voter” option when polled? Sunday, November 1, 2020 at 2:44 pm. One might expect the lead to increase in coming days as more post-debate polls get added. The first polls close in the eastern time zones of Indiana and Kentucky, both expected to be easy Trump wins. There is a question I once asked in a tutorial. This election should be a lay down misere for the Democrat because Donald Trump has an incomparably bad record on economic policy and the disaster response.